TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 8:45 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate whether a specific player achieves various incremental receiving yard thresholds in a designated football game. Each threshold represents a progressively higher benchmark the player must surpass during the entire match to settle the outcome.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half—including overtime—the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets the specified receiving yards threshold. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics, irrespective of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion. All events consider full-game receiving yards, including overtime periods. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective intelligence of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. You may find that this market’s probabilities, as expressed through the prices, differ from those offered by sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges or public perception shifts. This divergence can be particularly noticeable when considering factors not fully captured by traditional sports betting models.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a particular contract, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, providing a constantly updated forecast of the total receiving yards in the game.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yardage totals for all relevant players will be used to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual result. The market will then settle based on the contract that most accurately predicts the total receiving yards achieved during the game. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the contract's price at resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key receivers, would likely cause substantial shifts in prices. Changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also affect passing game strategies and, therefore, receiving yardage totals. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding player usage or offensive schemes could also move the market. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive adjustments could lead to traders reassessing the probabilities and adjusting their positions accordingly.