TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 5:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either team in the first half of an upcoming professional football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the bet to pay out.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between Los Angeles C and Los Angeles R during the first half of their scheduled game on Nov 1, 2026. For markets where Los Angeles R is the favorite, resolution occurs if Los Angeles R wins by more than the specified point margin (ranging from 2.5 to 13.5 points). Conversely, markets favoring Los Angeles C resolve if Los Angeles C wins by more than the designated margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). All outcomes are determined solely by points scored in the first half of play, with no consideration given to the final full-game result. The markets are independent, each corresponding to a different threshold that must be strictly exceeded for a 'Yes' resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If there’s a significant difference, it could indicate that prediction market participants believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. It’s important to note that these are separate markets with different participants and motivations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay for a contract that pays out if the specified spread holds true during the first half of the game. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time reflection of market sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread in the first half of the game between Los Angeles C and Los Angeles R will be compared against the market’s spread to determine which contracts will pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause price adjustments. Changes in team performance leading up to the game, such as winning or losing streaks, could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups or coaching strategies could also play a role. Even broader factors, like public betting patterns observed elsewhere, might influence trading activity on Kalshi, leading to fluctuations in the price of contracts for this market.