TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 8:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on the performance of a specific player in an upcoming football game, measuring how many rushing yards he accumulates during the full match. The outcomes depend solely on whether the player meets or exceeds various yardage thresholds.
All contracts in this event are designated as protected, meaning they incorporate specific participation clauses to determine resolution. If the player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half—including overtime—the contract resolves to the fair price set prior to the game's kickoff, unless the player meets or exceeds the specified rushing yard threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in at least one play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers the full game rushing yards, including overtime.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price of a contract indicates the probability of the actual rushing yards falling at or below that total. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement reflects the collective intelligence of the traders participating in the market, offering a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yards total, as recorded by the official NFL statistics, will determine whether contracts predicting over or under a specific yardage total will pay out. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and accurate determination of the market's outcome, based on the official game results.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a significant catalyst, as would changes in weather forecasts predicting adverse conditions that could impact the running game. News regarding offensive line changes or strategic adjustments by either coaching staff could also shift expectations. Finally, any late-breaking information about player matchups or team tendencies could lead to increased trading activity and price fluctuations in this market.