TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players during a football game between Los Angeles and Kansas City. Payouts vary depending on how many passes each player successfully catches, with higher payouts awarded for more receptions.
Contracts pay based on the exact number of receptions a designated player achieves during the specified football game. Each Yes contract’s payout increases progressively with the number of receptions, following a cubic scaling formula designed to reward higher performance levels. The payout schedule ranges from $0.00 for zero receptions up to $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout, ensuring total returns sum to $1.00 per contract pair. Payouts are capped at $1.00 for Yes contracts, and the market resolves to Yes upon game completion based on official statistics. The formula used to determine Yes payouts is floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official number of receptions recorded for the player. This structure applies uniformly across all player-specific markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – this market can adjust more rapidly than traditional sportsbooks. Polls and analysts’ predictions also frequently diverge from both, offering a broader range of perspectives on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential reception totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as assessed by the collective intelligence of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as profitable trading relies on correctly forecasting the event’s outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust expectations accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals for the Los Angeles C vs Kansas City game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will serve as the basis for determining the winning contracts. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts shortly after the game concludes and the official data is released. This ensures a transparent and reliable resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key receivers or the opposing defensive strategies would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact passing game performance and thus the number of receptions. Furthermore, late-breaking news about player matchups or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment and drive movement in this market. Monitoring these signals is crucial for informed trading.