TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the receiving performance of specific players in an upcoming NFL game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Each market focuses on a different player, with payouts scaling based on the total receiving yards they accumulate during the game. The structure allows participants to bet on both achieving a certain level of performance and on falling short of it.
All three markets operate under identical event-level rules, each tied to a different player’s receiving yardage in the same Chargers vs. Chiefs game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market is scalar, with Yes contracts paying $0.0025 per receiving yard recorded by the designated player, capped at $1.00 (equivalent to 400 yards). No contracts pay the remainder, calculated as $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to position size, meaning a holder’s return scales linearly with their stake. For example, 80 receiving yards would yield Yes $0.20 and No $0.80, while zero yards results in Yes $0.00 and No $1.00. The structure ensures that total payouts for any contract never exceed $1.00, and all markets resolve based solely on official game statistics.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on power rankings and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time adjustments based on trader activity. You might find that this market offers different probabilities for certain outcomes than those offered by sportsbooks, potentially revealing insights into what information is already priced in or undervalued. It’s a good practice to compare both to inform your own predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard totals for the players involved. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the market price is determined entirely by the collective actions of traders on the platform, reflecting their individual assessments of the likely results. The more a particular outcome is traded, the more its price will move.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for the players involved will be used to determine which contracts payout, based on the specified yardage ladders. The platform will verify the data against official sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then receive payouts according to the terms of their contracts.
Several factors could influence this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers and opposing cornerbacks are significant, as they directly impact expected yardage. Weather forecasts also play a role, with adverse conditions potentially limiting passing attempts. Unexpected changes in quarterback performance or play-calling strategies could shift expectations. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the market. Monitoring these signals can help you anticipate potential price movements and refine your predictions.