TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Los Angeles and Kansas City. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase progressively with the player's receiving yards, following a cubic scaling formula. 'No' contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the 'Yes' payout, creating a zero-sum dynamic where total returns sum to $1.00 per contract pair.
Contracts resolve based on official receiving yards accumulated by designated players during the specified game. Each 'Yes' contract pays according to a cubic scaling formula that maps yardage brackets to increasing payouts up to $1.00, calculated as floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000 where y equals min(200, max(0, 10 x floor(s / 10))) and s represents actual yards. 'No' contracts receive $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout, with negative yardage resulting in $0.00 for 'Yes' contracts. All payouts are capped at $1.00 per contract, and the market officially resolves to 'Yes' following the yardage-based calculations. The structure ensures that for every 'Yes' payout, the corresponding 'No' contract pays the remainder to maintain a balanced, zero-sum resolution framework.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant events or breaking news. These differences can arise from varying levels of information or differing interpretations of the same information, making this market a valuable tool for informed decision-making alongside traditional betting options.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage thresholds. The price of each contract reflects the probability of the actual receiving yards falling within that range. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth indicates how much volume is available at different price points, giving an indication of potential price movements and liquidity. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals for the specified NFL game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for the players in question will be sourced from official NFL statistics. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, based on publicly available data. Traders should monitor official sources as the game concludes to understand the final results and how they impact this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends are major catalysts, as their availability directly impacts potential receiving yardage. Changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also affect passing games and, consequently, receiving yards. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive strategy could also move the market. Finally, any significant news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in trader expectations and price fluctuations within this market.