TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for two quarterbacks in a specific football game. Each outcome represents whether a player achieves a certain yardage threshold during the match. The contracts include protection clauses for partial game participation.
All contracts in this event are designated as protected, meaning they resolve based on specific participation criteria if the named player does not complete the full game. If a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime—including overtime—the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game unless the player meets the passing yard requirement, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. All contracts consider full-game passing yards, including overtime, and the protected designation applies only to contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant events or breaking news. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, but remember that each represents a distinct form of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage ranges. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer a contract's predicted outcome is to the consensus view, the higher its price will be. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing yardage total from the game between Los Angeles C and Kansas City is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics from the NFL will be used to determine the winning contract. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts after the official game data is released and verified.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Weather conditions, particularly strong winds or rain, could also impact passing yardage and shift trader sentiment. Unexpected changes in coaching strategies or offensive play-calling could also play a role. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could also trigger price fluctuations in this market.