TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns they achieve. Bettors can speculate on whether a player will reach certain thresholds of scoring passes during the match. The outcomes depend entirely on the players' in-game success in connecting with receivers for touchdowns.
These markets resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns thrown by either Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert in the specified Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs game. For any market, if the named quarterback is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap — even if that play is nullified by a penalty — the market resolves according to the actual passing touchdowns recorded during the game. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., 1+, 2+, 3+, or 4+ touchdowns), and if the quarterback meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets are independent, and each is evaluated solely against its own threshold requirement.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. It’s common to see the two converge as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are influenced by news, injuries, and other factors that affect perceptions of the game's likely outcome, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Los Angeles C versus Kansas City game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning contract. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the outcome of this market and any associated payouts.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health, such as injuries or illness, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also move the market. Unexpected news about key receivers or offensive line players could also influence trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding coaching strategies or game plans could shift perceptions and cause the price of contracts to adjust accordingly.