TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how often their passes are intercepted by the opposing team. It examines different thresholds of interception counts to evaluate risk and predictive outcomes for bettors.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing interceptions recorded by specified quarterbacks during the Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different interception threshold (1+, 2+, or 3+) for either Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap — even if the play is nullified by penalty — the market resolves according to the actual number of interceptions recorded during the game. All markets operate independently, with resolution contingent solely on achieving the specified interception threshold for the named player.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks often incorporate biases or seek to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the prediction market odds can move more rapidly than traditional sportsbook odds, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment of the likely outcome. It's common to see convergence as the event draws nearer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different numbers of passing interceptions. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that specific number of interceptions occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations, influenced by various factors like team performance, quarterback tendencies, and defensive strategies.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing interceptions thrown in the Los Angeles C versus Kansas City game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will settle to the value that corresponds to the actual number of interceptions thrown during the game, allowing traders to realize their profits or losses based on their predictions.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the starting quarterbacks for either team – such as injuries or changes in playing status – would be a major catalyst. Unexpected weather conditions, particularly heavy rain or strong winds, could influence passing frequency and interception rates. Furthermore, late-breaking reports on defensive schemes or key player matchups could also shift market sentiment. Even significant shifts in public perception, driven by expert analysis or social media trends, can contribute to price movement in this market.