TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with receivers. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds predetermined completion thresholds. These metrics offer insight into expected offensive efficiency for both teams.
All markets in this event resolve based on the number of passing completions achieved by either Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert during the Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: Mahomes markets require 16+, 21+, or 26+ completions, while Herbert markets require 13+, 18+, or 23+ completions for a 'Yes' outcome. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by penalty—the market resolves strictly based on the actual number of completions recorded during the game. These rules ensure fair resolution regardless of late-game changes or penalties affecting individual plays.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than sportsbook lines, especially when there is significant public interest. However, sportsbook odds may be more readily available and offer different types of wagers. It's valuable to compare both to gain a comprehensive understanding of expectations for this game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total passing completions. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, which causes the prices to fluctuate. The market depth indicates the volume of buy and sell orders at various price levels, providing insight into the strength of conviction behind different predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved during the Los Angeles C versus Kansas City game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will serve as the basis for settlement. Traders will be able to see the final result and the payout of their contracts shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released.
Several signals could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds or rain, could also affect passing game strategies and therefore the expected number of completions. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching decisions or defensive adjustments could shift market sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi themselves can indicate informed activity and cause price movements in this market.