TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either team specifically within the final quarter of a professional football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that specific period for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th quarter of play, with overtime periods excluded from consideration. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team wins the game by exceeding the designated point differential threshold exclusively within that quarter. Thresholds range from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger gaps such as over 10.5 points, offering varying levels of difficulty for each outcome. The resolution depends entirely on the scoring dynamics confined to the last quarter of regulation time, making late-game performance the sole determinant of results across all markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective prediction of informed traders. You may find that this market's implied probabilities align with sportsbook lines, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, discrepancies can emerge due to differing information or perspectives held by participants in each venue. It’s valuable to compare both to gain a broader understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 4th quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the event, the more the price will likely reflect the perceived likelihood of the outcome, as new information and analysis become available. The current volume indicates the level of trader interest in this matchup.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official 4th quarter spread between Los Angeles C and Kansas City is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official game statistics, and the market will settle based on whether the actual spread falls within the contract's range. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any significant news regarding player injuries to key players on either Los Angeles C or Kansas City would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game's style, could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as any late-breaking news related to team morale or internal dynamics, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market before Oct 18, 2026.