TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either team specifically within the third quarter of an upcoming professional football game. Bettors assess how dominant one team might be in that particular quarter, without considering the full game outcome.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the third quarter of play in the designated Pro Football game. Each market has a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by either Kansas City or Los Angeles C for a 'Yes' outcome. If Kansas City wins the third quarter by more than the stated margin, the corresponding 'Kansas City wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Los Angeles C wins the third quarter by more than the stated margin, the corresponding 'Los Angeles C wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Markets are independent; resolution depends only on the third-quarter point differential, regardless of the full game's final score or any other quarter's results. All markets share the same secondary rule that only points scored in the third quarter count.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance betting action, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Polls and analysts often predict a winner, but this market allows you to trade on the *magnitude* of the win – specifically, the 3rd quarter spread – offering a different perspective than a simple win/loss prediction.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts indicating a specific spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information becomes available. The current price indicates what the market believes the spread will be at the end of the 3rd quarter.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread between Los Angeles C and Kansas City is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their investment. It’s important to monitor the game and official results as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key players on either team are major catalysts, as they directly affect expected performance. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also shift the odds. Game-day news, such as a last-minute starting quarterback change, would likely cause a rapid price adjustment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi themselves can indicate informed activity and influence the direction of the NFL 3rd quarter spread.