TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either team specifically in the second half of an upcoming football game, including any overtime periods. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the bet to pay out.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified football game. For markets where Kansas City is the favorite, resolution occurs if Kansas City wins the second half by more than the specified point margin. Conversely, for markets where Los Angeles is the favorite, resolution occurs if Los Angeles wins the second half by more than the specified margin. Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward determining the outcome. All markets are independent, meaning each resolves according to its own threshold regardless of the overall game result or the first half scoring.
Frequently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the aggregated predictions of informed traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Polls and analysts’ predictions often align more closely with the prediction market than with sportsbook lines, as both attempt to forecast the most likely outcome based on available data, though this market provides a real-money incentive for accuracy.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the second-half point spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective forecast. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by new information, breaking news, and changes in overall market sentiment regarding the game. The current price reflects the market’s best estimate of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second-half point spread between Los Angeles C and Kansas City is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and the market will settle to 100 for the winning contract. Traders holding the contract corresponding to the actual spread will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Los Angeles C or Kansas City would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also move the market. Game-day developments, such as early scoring drives or unexpected strategic adjustments, will undoubtedly influence trading activity. Even broader NFL news or public sentiment shifts could contribute to price movements in this market.