TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:18 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming Ligue 1 soccer match between Lorient and Monaco. It focuses on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent, with different thresholds defining various outcomes.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Lorient vs Monaco Ligue 1 match scheduled for October 18, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcomes are possible: Lorient winning by more than 2.5 goals, Lorient winning by more than 1.5 goals, Monaco winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Monaco winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each primary rule defines a specific threshold for victory margins, and the market resolves to 'Yes' for the applicable rule if the actual result meets or exceeds its stated margin. All outcomes are independent, and only the corresponding market for the achieved margin will resolve positively; others resolve negatively. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the Ligue 1 governing body, and all league-related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. If many traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price of contracts predicting that outcome will rise. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams' strengths. It’s useful to compare the implied probabilities to see where the crowdsourced view differs from professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting an outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information becomes available. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the likelihood of the spread outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread result of the Lorient vs Monaco match, as determined by official sources. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the final price of those contracts at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team formations, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategy or coaching changes could also have a significant impact. Furthermore, the performance of both Lorient and Monaco in their preceding matches will likely be closely watched, as will any updated analysis from sports commentators. Major shifts in public opinion, reflected in polls or expert predictions, could also move this market.