TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 7:17 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks the likelihood of both Karmine Corp and CTBC Flying Oyster slaying Baron Nashor in Game 2 of their best-of-three League of Legends Worlds Group Stage matchup. Currently, the aggregated probability across Limitless, Kalshi, and Polymarket indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome, based on data from https://gol.gg/esports/home. The event group includes markets for overall match and game winners, as well as in-game events. Keep an eye on the match schedule for October 29, 2026, as this date represents the originally scheduled time for this match and will be key to resolution.
This market refers to the LoL Round 4 match between Karmine Corp and CTBC Flying Oyster in the Worlds Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against CTBC Flying Oyster. This market will resolve to "CTBC Flying Oyster" if CTBC Flying Oyster win the match against Karmine Corp. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 29, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
The event resolves based on the result of the Worlds 2026 League of Legends match between CTBC Flying Oyster and Karmine Corp, scheduled for October 29, 2026, at 7:00 PM EDT. If CTBC Flying Oyster wins, the CTBC Flying Oyster market resolves to Yes, and the Karmine Corp market resolves to No. Conversely, if Karmine Corp wins, the Karmine Corp market resolves to Yes, and the CTBC Flying Oyster market resolves to No. If the match is postponed and does not start within 48 hours of the original time, both markets resolve to their fair market price. If the match is cancelled before any play occurs, or if either team forfeits prior to the match beginning, both markets also resolve to the fair market price. If the match starts but is later forfeited, the result will be determined by the official outcome declared by the governing body or tournament organizer. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
This market refers to the LoL match between Karmine Corp and CTBC Flying Oyster in the Worlds Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 29, 2026 UTC. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against CTBC Flying Oyster. This market will resolve to "CTBC Flying Oyster" if CTBC Flying Oyster win the match against Karmine Corp. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 12, 2026, 23:59 UTC (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 29, 2026 UTC). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, or the team is renamed or rebranded, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow traders to freely express their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment diverges from expert analysis. While sportsbooks may incorporate factors like team news and historical data, this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time adjustments based on trader activity. It’s a valuable comparison point for informed bettors.
Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Limitless on this market can arise due to several factors. Different user bases on each platform may have varying levels of expertise or access to information regarding the teams' form and strategies. Trading activity and volume also play a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for setting odds – how traders can place bets and the associated fees – differ between Polymarket and Limitless, influencing price formation. These factors contribute to the observed differences in probabilities for this event.
Several signals could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, team strategies, or unexpected roster changes for either Karmine Corp or CTBC Flying Oyster could significantly shift trader sentiment. In-game performance during the Worlds Group Stage, including early match results and individual player statistics, will likely have a substantial impact. Major upsets or dominant performances by either team could cause a rapid adjustment in the probabilities reflected in this market. Keep an eye on esports news and analysis for potential catalysts that could move the odds.