TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an elite football match between two top teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It reflects how analysts and fans might assess the relative strength and performance of the teams based on the score difference at the end of regular time.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios for the Liverpool versus Manchester City professional English Premier League (EPL) soccer match scheduled for October 11, 2026. Resolution is determined solely by the full-time score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty shootouts. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Liverpool winning by more than 2.5 goals, Liverpool winning by more than 1.5 goals, Manchester City winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Manchester City winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market that meets its specified condition will resolve positively (Yes). The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective rights holders.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market's prices are determined by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts on Kalshi and at a sportsbook. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees the actual result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the spread in the Liverpool vs Manchester City match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if their prediction is correct.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Liverpool vs Manchester City match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined by the governing body of the league. The platform will then determine payouts to contract holders based on whether their predicted outcome matches the actual result. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand when the market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Liverpool or Manchester City would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected news events or public statements from influential figures related to the teams could also cause price fluctuations in this market as traders react to new information.