TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Arsenal will win its professional English Premier League soccer game against Liverpool. Currently, Kalshi gives Arsenal a win probability of 82.0%, while a tie is priced at 13.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the Liverpool vs Arsenal game originally scheduled for November 1, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result. Keep an eye on the starting lineups announced on November 1, 2026, as they will provide an early indication of each team’s strategy for the match.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Liverpool vs. Arsenal English Premier League match scheduled for November 1, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for either Liverpool or Arsenal occurs only if that team secures a victory within regular time; draws resolve the 'Tie' market. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will settle at a fair price as determined by the platform. The event exclusively considers results from regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly deviates from the sportsbook’s initial assessment. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information and insights that aren’t immediately reflected in sportsbook lines, potentially offering a different perspective on the likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Liverpool vs Arsenal match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adjust to new information and changing expectations regarding the match’s result.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Liverpool vs Arsenal match, as officially recorded by sporting authorities, will determine the winning contract. Resolution will occur after the completion of the match and the official confirmation of the scoreline. Traders holding the winning contract will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Nov 1, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Liverpool or Arsenal would likely have a substantial impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather forecasts predicting adverse conditions could also shift the probabilities. Unexpected news about the availability of star players, or even reports of internal team issues, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market. Public sentiment and media coverage leading up to the match will also play a role.