TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Liverpool M and Penarol, focusing on the result after the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The contest evaluates whether either team secures a victory within regular time or if the game concludes in a draw. These outcomes determine the resolution of separate markets tied to each possible result.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Liverpool M vs Penarol professional Uruguay Primera Division soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three distinct markets correspond to possible outcomes: one for a Liverpool M win, one for a Penarol win, and one for a tie. If the match concludes with either team winning within regular time, the respective market resolves to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve at a fair price as determined per the platform’s guidelines. The event explicitly excludes outcomes determined by extra time or penalty shootouts, focusing solely on the result after the prescribed 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from those initially set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often start with odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and evolving sentiment as more people trade. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing the likelihood of a particular outcome, the odds on Kalshi will adjust accordingly, potentially offering a more accurate prediction than traditional sources. It’s important to compare both to form your own informed opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who buy a contract, the higher its price rises, indicating increased confidence in that outcome. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on the event.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Liverpool vs Penarol match, as reported by a recognized sports authority. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. The platform will verify the result and distribute payouts accordingly, ensuring a transparent and reliable process.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions impacting the match could shift trader sentiment. Major upsets in other related matches or significant changes in public opinion regarding team performance could also play a role. Even general media coverage and expert analysis can influence how traders assess the probabilities, leading to fluctuations in the market price up until Oct 19, 2026.