TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 5:58 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks the probability of Liverpool FC scoring over 1.5 goals in the second half of their match against Villarreal CF. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Predict and Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Liverpool FC scoring over 1.5 goals in the second half. Resolution will be based on the official final score published on uefa.com. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the outcome will be determined by the events occurring during the first 90 minutes of regular play plus any added stoppage time before October 20, 2026, which is the estimated resolution date.
More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for October 20 at 3:00 PM ET.
More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for October 20 at 3:00 PM ET.
Prediction market odds, like those found on this market, often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbooks. This is because prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs, leading to a “wisdom of the crowd” effect. Sportsbooks, conversely, may be influenced by factors like public bias or the desire to balance their book. While sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, this market allows traders to directly bet on the probability of an event, potentially offering a more transparent and efficient price discovery mechanism. The volume of $1,194,319 demonstrates active engagement with this question.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The differing prices on Polymarket and Predict for the Liverpool vs Villarreal match can stem from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying expertise and risk tolerance. Trading fees and platform-specific rules also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the liquidity and volume on each platform—currently $1,194,319 overall—can influence price formation. While Polymarket currently favors Spread: Liverpool FC (-3.5) at 99, Predict leans toward Spread: Liverpool FC (-4.5) at an unlisted percentage, showcasing these differing dynamics.