TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 7:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various point-spread outcomes for an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on the margin of victory for either team. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the contest, with specific thresholds determining the results across multiple markets.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the LIU vs Wagner college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. If LIU wins by exceeding the specified point margin defined in each market (ranging from 2.5 to 30.5 points), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Conversely, if Wagner wins by more than the designated margin (1.5 to 17.5 points) for a given market, that market also resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price here will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of money has been traded on either side. Comparing the two can offer insights into public perception versus professional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final point spread in the LIU vs Wagner game. The price reflects the probability of the spread being above or below the current market price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official result of the LIU vs Wagner game. The market will settle based on the actual point difference between the two teams at the end of regulation play. Any overtime periods will be included in the final score used to determine the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the LIU or Wagner teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to team morale or any controversies surrounding the game could also play a role. As the game approaches, any updates or analysis from sports analysts could also shift the price, as traders react to new information.