TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 8:14 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Alexander Ritschard in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Alexander Ritschard. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Ritschard' if Alexander Ritschard advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Alexander Ritschard in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Alexander Ritschard. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Ritschard' if Alexander Ritschard advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially early in the market's lifecycle, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and adjust accordingly. Examining these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges toward what the market collectively believes is the fair probability. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of each player’s chances of winning the match, and this price fluctuates based on supply and demand for shares.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Trungelliti vs Ritschard match as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against established sources to determine which player won the match and settle the market accordingly. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several factors could influence the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public opinion could cause traders to reassess their positions. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in tennis performance, could also impact the market. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket itself can create short-term price movements, reflecting the conviction of individual traders. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves.