TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 12:54 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Taberner and Goncalo Marques in the Lisbon, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Taberner' if Carlos Taberner advances against Goncalo Marques. This market will resolve to 'Goncalo Marques' if Goncalo Marques advances against Carlos Taberner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Taberner and Goncalo Marques in the Lisbon, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Taberner' if Carlos Taberner advances against Goncalo Marques. This market will resolve to 'Goncalo Marques' if Goncalo Marques advances against Carlos Taberner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of how opinions evolve. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than traditional sportsbooks, especially as the event approaches.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Taberner vs Marques match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the match gets, the more volatile the price may become as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on the official result of the Taberner vs Marques match as reported by recognized tennis authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is declared the winner. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or significant shifts in expert analysis could cause the odds to move. Unexpected results in other matches involving either Taberner or Marques might also affect trader sentiment. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a change in perceived probabilities, causing a noticeable shift in the market price. Monitoring these signals is crucial for understanding potential movements in this market.