TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 4:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming soccer match between Lincoln and West Ham, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals each team scores during regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are placed on whether a team will win by a specific goal difference.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Lincoln vs West Ham EFL Championship match scheduled for October 14, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered, each tied to a specific winning margin: Lincoln winning by more than 2.5 goals, Lincoln winning by more than 1.5 goals, West Ham winning by more than 1.5 goals, and West Ham winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the relevant outcome if the stated condition is met; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' The event operates independently of official league affiliations, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the opinions of individuals with skin in the game. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, as traders attempt to capitalize on mispricings between the two types of markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread in the Lincoln vs West Ham match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence of all participants, creating a probabilistic forecast of the event’s outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Lincoln vs West Ham match, as determined by official sources, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders who accurately predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract’s value at resolution. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and objective outcome for all participants.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the Lincoln vs West Ham match takes place. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in team formations, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategy or manager decisions could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could signal a change in expectations, potentially triggering further movement in the market. Monitoring these signals is crucial for understanding the evolving probabilities within this market.