TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 1:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Ligue 1 soccer match between Lille and Le Havre, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Lille vs Le Havre Ligue 1 match scheduled for October 10, 2026. All outcomes are determined solely by the score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct market conditions are assessed: Lille winning by more than 2.5 goals, Lille winning by more than 1.5 goals, Le Havre winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Le Havre winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified team achieves the required goal-differential victory. The rules explicitly state that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, which can differ from sportsbook odds set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting biases or promotional considerations into their lines, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs through trading. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the potential outcome of the Lille vs Le Havre match, and potentially identify value in either market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid and ask for contracts representing different outcomes of the Lille vs Le Havre match spread. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread itself is determined by the difference in prices between contracts representing different sides of the spread, allowing traders to express views on the margin of victory or defeat.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Lille vs Le Havre match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official match result as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The final spread will be determined by the actual point difference between the two teams at the end of the game. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before Oct 10, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Lille or Le Havre would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team issues could also shift the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information or a change in sentiment regarding the Lille vs Le Havre match.