TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lightning vs. Sabres
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 6 at 7:00PM ET: If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning". If the Sabres win, the market will resolve to "Sabres". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different resolution thresholds for over/under markets on total goals. Kalshi offers markets at 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5 goals, while Polymarket offers markets at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, and 8.5 goals, creating gaps in coverage and different settlement values for the same game outcome.Hero Tip:
If you trade the O/U 2.5 or O/U 3.5 markets on Kalshi, note that Polymarket has no equivalent markets at these thresholds. Conversely, both platforms cover 4.5 through 8.5, but the threshold definitions differ slightly in their phrasing (Kalshi uses 'over X.5' while Polymarket specifies 'combine to score X or more goals'). Ensure you understand which threshold you are betting on, as a final score of exactly 5 goals resolves differently: YES on Kalshi's O/U 4.5 (over 4.5) but OVER on Polymarket's O/U 4.5 (5 or more goals). Both interpretations are mathematically equivalent, but the language differs.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers eight over/under markets at thresholds of 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5 total goals. Each market resolves YES if the combined total exceeds the stated threshold. Kalshi also includes moneyline (Lightning vs. Sabres) and spread markets (Lightning -1.5, Sabres -1.5). Resolution is based on final score including overtime and shootouts.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers five over/under markets at thresholds of 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, and 8.5 total goals, plus a moneyline market (Lightning vs. Sabres) and two spread markets (Lightning -1.5, Sabres -1.5). Each over/under market resolves to OVER if the combined total is at or above the stated threshold plus one (e.g., O/U 4.5 resolves OVER if 5 or more goals are scored). Resolution is based on final score including overtime and shootouts, with one goal added to the winning team's score in the event of a shootout.
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