TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
Volume:
$590,939
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs NHL game scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), multiple over/under total goals thresholds, and spread betting. Resolution depends on final score including overtime and shootout adjustments.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket offer overlapping over/under markets on the same game but with different threshold granularity and trigger logic. Kalshi provides 8 thresholds (2.5–9.5); Polymarket provides 4 (4.5–7.5). Both use final score including overtime and shootout adjustments, but Kalshi's strict greater-than logic differs from Polymarket's greater-than-or-equal interpretation.Hero Tip:
Focus on the 4 overlapping thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) and confirm trigger equivalence before trading. Kalshi's unique 2.5 and 3.5 markets offer isolated exposure if you believe the game will be low-scoring. Always verify the final official NHL score source both platforms will use; any discrepancy in shootout goal attribution could cause divergent settlements.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 8 separate over/under markets using strict greater-than (>) logic. Thresholds: 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5. Example: 'If over 5.5 total combined goals are scored... then the market resolves to Yes.' No moneyline or spread markets listed.
- Polymarket: 4 over/under markets using greater-than-or-equal (>=) logic after adding 1 to threshold. Thresholds: 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5. Also includes moneyline (Lightning vs. Maple Leafs winner) and spread (Lightning -1.5). Example: 'O/U 5.5 resolves Over if combined goals >= 6.' Shootout adds 1 goal to winner's score.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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