TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:40 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets assess whether either Liechtenstein or Gibraltar secures a victory by a margin exceeding specific goal differences during the regular 90-minute period of the match, not including extra time or penalties.
The markets resolve based on the goal differential if Liechtenstein or Gibraltar wins the professional Intl Friendlies soccer game scheduled for October 5, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. One market set resolves if Liechtenstein wins by more than 2.5 goals, and another if they win by more than 1.5 goals. The other two markets resolve if Gibraltar wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. Extra time and penalty shootout results do not count. Kalshi emphasizes no official connection with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a profit margin. This market allows individuals to express their own informed opinions, leading to odds that can diverge from traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges. It’s common to see differences, particularly in less-covered events like the Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar match, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread in the Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds dynamically based on their own analysis and reactions to news and information, creating a real-time assessment of the event's potential outcome. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all traders on the Kalshi exchange.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar match, as determined by official results, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The specific payout value will depend on the price of the contract at the time of resolution. Traders will be able to see the final result and their payout amounts on Kalshi shortly after the match concludes and the official results are available.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market before Oct 6, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, might also impact the market. Furthermore, any updates on the teams’ recent performance or tactical approaches could lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities of different outcomes for the Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar match. Unexpected events during the match itself will also obviously have a major effect.