TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:45 PM EST
Predict
This prediction market asks which team will score the first goal in a soccer match between Liechtenstein and Gibraltar. The market considers goals scored within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs. If neither team scores, the market resolves to 'Neither'.
In the upcoming match between Liechtenstein and Gibraltar, scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Liechtenstein" if Liechtenstein are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Gibraltar" if Gibraltar are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between Liechtenstein and Gibraltar, scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Liechtenstein" if Liechtenstein are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Gibraltar" if Gibraltar are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect a more diverse range of information than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks primarily use statistical models and expert analysis, while prediction markets incorporate the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to differences in probabilities, especially when subjective factors or less-publicly available information are at play. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on team rankings, this market’s pricing is driven by traders actively expressing their beliefs. The current volume of $409 suggests growing interest in this event.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict can arise from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information about the Liechtenstein vs. Gibraltar match. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for trading and order execution differ between Polymarket and Predict, influencing how quickly and effectively information is incorporated into prices. Currently, Polymarket currently favors neither team to score first at 98, while Predict leans toward Gibraltar to score first.