TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 9:28 PM EST
Kalshi
Two professional soccer teams compete in a match where the outcome depends on the goal difference between them. The result is determined solely by the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
This event covers four possible outcomes of a professional USL Championship soccer match between Lexington SC and Tulsa, scheduled for October 9, 2026. The markets resolve based on the goal differential after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Lexington SC wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If Lexington SC wins by more than 1.5 goals, the second market resolves to Yes. If Tulsa wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes. If Tulsa wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets share identical secondary rules, clarifying that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the league and that trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially in the lead-up to an event. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. However, sportsbook odds can still provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and significant discrepancies between the two may present potential trading opportunities. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market collectively believes is the true probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising the price and increased selling pressure lowering it. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Lexington SC vs Tulsa game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 10, 2026. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Lexington SC or Tulsa teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news or controversies surrounding either team could also play a role. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either team covering the spread has the potential to shift the market price.