TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:27 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets assess the margin of victory in the Leverkusen versus Freiburg match, focusing on whether either team wins by a specified goal differential within regular time plus stoppage time.
Markets resolve based on the goal differential if Leverkusen or Freiburg wins the match by more than specified margins (2.5 or 1.5 goals) after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. One set of markets covers Leverkusen winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, while the other set covers Freiburg winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. A 'Yes' outcome occurs only if the winning team exceeds the stated margin for that specific market.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to divergences, especially when public sentiment strongly disagrees with the sportsbook's initial assessment. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information or changing circumstances than sportsbooks, as traders continuously update their views.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own analysis, news, and expectations, creating a dynamic and evolving price. As more people trade, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability of each outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Leverkusen vs Freiburg match, specifically the goal difference. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Leverkusen or Freiburg would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches that affect team motivation or league standings could also play a role, as could any significant public endorsements or analyses from respected football commentators.