TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Leones Negros UDEG vs. Tepatitlan FC
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Leones Negros UDEG vs. Tepatitlan FC?

Volume:
$210,848

Leones Negros

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 3:06 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Leones Negros

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$53,346
N/A
N/A
$23,502
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Leones Negros UDEG

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$82,853
N/A
N/A
$78,650
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Leones Negros UDEG vs. Tepatitlan FC)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,946
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tepatitlan

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,284
N/A
N/A
$51,048
Settled
No
polymarket

Tepatitlan FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$997
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This group forecasts the outcome of a Liga de Expansion MX soccer match between Leones Negros UDEG and Tepatitlan FC on November 1, 2026. Markets ask whether Leones Negros, Tepatitlan, or a draw will occur after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines 'No' resolution for a canceled game, while Kalshi implicitly covers all outcomes, including a win/loss/draw.Hero tip: Consider the likelihood of game cancellation when trading on Polymarket, as a cancellation will result in a 'No' resolution for the win market. Kalshi markets are unaffected by cancellations as they cover all possible results.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket asks if Leones Negros UDEG will win. If the game is canceled, the market resolves to 'No'. "If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 'No'."
  • Kalshi: Kalshi has three markets: Leones Negros win, Tepatitlan win, and Tie. All resolve to 'Yes' if their respective outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No specific cancellation handling is mentioned.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Liga de Expansión MX game, scheduled for Sunday, November 1, 2026 between Leones Negros UDEG and Tepatitlan FC.

Kalshi

The event covers three possible outcomes of the Leones Negros vs Tepatitlan professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer match scheduled for November 1, 2026: a win for Leones Negros, a win for Tepatitlan, or a tie. Each outcome has a corresponding market that resolves to 'Yes' if that specific result occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalty shootouts excluded from consideration. If the match ends in a tie at the end of regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following the platform's guidelines. The event operates independently of the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the mechanisms of price discovery. Sportsbooks set odds based on internal models and aim to balance their risk, while prediction markets rely on the collective intelligence of traders who buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available and volume increases. However, sportsbooks may offer different markets, such as prop bets, not currently available in this market. The current volume of $210,848 suggests growing interest in this event.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise from several factors. Different user bases, varying liquidity, and distinct market-making strategies all contribute to potential divergence. Polymarket might attract more informed traders on soccer, while Kalshi could have a broader audience with less specific knowledge. Furthermore, the fee structures and contract specifications on each platform can influence trading behavior and, consequently, the displayed probabilities. The current volume of $210,848 may also be distributed unevenly across the two platforms, exacerbating these differences.