TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

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40,178

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

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Leon vs America
kalshi

What is the result of Leon vs America?

Volume:
$2,414,972

America

 - Kalshi

America - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 17, 11:08 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

America

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,342,676
N/A
N/A
$698,417
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Leon

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$675,142
N/A
N/A
$432,214
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$397,153
N/A
N/A
$216,539
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether America will win a professional Liga MX soccer game against Leon. Currently, Kalshi gives America a 90.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 7.0%. The market resolves based on the result of the Leon vs America game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as reported by the official Liga MX results; therefore, keep a close eye on the match itself as the primary signal, with resolution expected around October 18, 2026 to account for reporting timelines.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the result of the Leon vs America professional Liga MX soccer game scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Leon wins the match within this timeframe, the 'Leon' market resolves to Yes. If America wins under the same conditions, the 'America' market resolves to Yes. Should the game conclude in a tie after regular time plus stoppage, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform’s rules. The event exclusively considers the outcome of standard match time and does not account for results determined during extra time or penalty shootouts.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Leon vs America fight tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $2,348,254 and the total volume traded is $2,414,972. You can see how the market is valuing different outcomes and observe changes in sentiment over time. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders stand on the likely result of this matchup, offering insight into the collective prediction of the event’s outcome.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect information and insights different from those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of informed traders. If prediction market odds diverge significantly from sportsbook odds, it might suggest traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities and can be influenced by various factors, and discrepancies don’t automatically indicate one is ‘correct’.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Leon vs America fight. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic creates a market-driven assessment of the event’s potential results.

This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Leon vs America fight, as determined by the relevant boxing authorities. The market will then settle to 100 for the winning outcome, and 0 for all others. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to either fighter, changes in their training regimens, or shifts in public perception could impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about the fight’s location or rules could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, any significant betting activity or analysis from boxing experts that challenges the current market consensus could lead to shifts in the odds, as traders adjust their positions based on new information.