TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 5:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the potential margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that determines a payout based on the final score.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the Lehigh vs Cornell college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. If Lehigh wins by exceeding the specified point margin defined in each market, that market resolves to Yes; if Cornell wins by exceeding its defined margin, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent predictions. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price in this market will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of information becomes public, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of data and perspectives than traditional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising the price and increased selling pressure lowering it. This dynamic process aims to converge on a fair and efficient price reflecting the true likelihood of the event outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the Lehigh versus Cornell game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting a spread that matches the final result will settle at 100, while those predicting a different spread will settle at 0. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and results, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Lehigh or Cornell teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact playing conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or updated statistical models, could lead traders to adjust their positions and move the price. Unexpected coaching decisions or late-breaking team news could also play a role in how this market evolves.