TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 2:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Europa League soccer match between Lech Poznan and Sunderland. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team within regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. The event resolves based on whether the winning team achieves specific goal-differential thresholds.
The event evaluates different goal-margin thresholds for determining a 'Yes' outcome across four distinct conditions. If Lech Poznan wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the event resolves positively. Similarly, if Sunderland secures a victory by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals, the event also resolves positively. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The event explicitly states that the platform operating it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. This can lead to divergences, particularly when public sentiment strongly disagrees with the sportsbook's initial assessment. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information or changing circumstances than sportsbooks, as traders continuously adjust their positions. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a mechanism similar to a stock exchange, allowing traders to set their own prices and execute trades with others. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Lech Poznan vs Sunderland match, specifically the goal difference. The platform will utilize publicly available and widely accepted sources to determine the winner and the margin of victory. This ensures a transparent and impartial resolution process. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand when and how this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 22, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or coaching changes could also cause volatility. Furthermore, large-volume trades from informed participants could quickly move the market, reflecting new information or a change in overall perception of the match’s likely outcome. Monitoring sports news and team updates is crucial.