TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:02 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Bologna will win its Serie A soccer match against Lecce. Currently, Kalshi gives Bologna a 68.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 23.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the Lecce vs Bologna professional Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as reported by the official match result. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the match on October 11, 2026, as that marks the beginning of the event window for resolution.
The markets resolve based on the result of the Lecce vs Bologna professional Serie A soccer match originally scheduled for October 11, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. A 'Yes' outcome for the Lecce market occurs if Lecce wins the match within regulation time. Similarly, a 'Yes' outcome for the Bologna market occurs if Bologna wins within regulation time. The Tie market resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends in a tie after regulation time. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The markets specifically exclude outcomes determined by extra time or penalties, focusing solely on the result after the standard match duration.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows anyone to express their view, and the odds shift dynamically as new information and opinions enter the market. Often, you’ll find prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or changes in sentiment than traditional sportsbooks, offering a potentially more up-to-date assessment of probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Lecce vs Bologna match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a fair value based on the collective assessment of information. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe Lecce will win, the price of contracts representing a Lecce victory will increase, and vice-versa.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official result of the Lecce vs Bologna match, as reported by a widely recognized sports data provider. The platform will then determine the winning outcome and process any outstanding contracts. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift traders' perceptions of each team's chances. Unexpected lineup announcements or reports of player conflicts could also have a significant impact. Furthermore, general shifts in public sentiment, fueled by media coverage or social media discussions, can also drive trading activity and alter the odds in this market. Monitoring these signals is key to understanding potential price movements.