TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:18 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Ligue 1 soccer match between Le Havre and Auxerre, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The match must complete its full 90 minutes plus any stoppage time for the outcome to be valid.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Le Havre or Auxerre wins the match. If Le Havre wins by more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. If Le Havre wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not exceeding 2.5), that market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Auxerre wins by more than 1.5 goals, that market resolves to Yes, and if Auxerre wins by more than 2.5 goals, that market resolves to Yes. All outcomes are determined after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. The event is unaffiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their analysis, while this market allows traders to adjust those probabilities based on new information and collective insight. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly as new developments emerge leading up to the event. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the potential outcome of the Le Havre vs Auxerre match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different sides of the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus regarding the Le Havre vs Auxerre match.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Le Havre vs Auxerre match as reported by official sources. The market will determine which side of the spread was the correct prediction based on the final score difference. Traders will then be paid out or required to cover their positions based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual result.
Several signals could impact this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Le Havre or Auxerre would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team issues could also shift the market. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either team covering the spread has the potential to move this market.