TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:53 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Lazio and Monza, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It reflects how bettors and analysts assess team performance and expected scoring differences in competitive play. The result depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple potential scoring margins in the Lazio vs Monza Serie A match scheduled for October 11, 2026. All markets resolve based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are excluded. If Lazio wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If Lazio wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not exceeding 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Monza wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if Monza wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. Only one market will resolve to Yes, depending on the exact goal differential, while all others resolve to No. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to attract action on both sides, whereas this market allows traders to express their independent beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources or varying levels of expertise among participants. It's common to see prediction markets move more efficiently as new information emerges, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than traditional odds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Lazio vs Monza match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe Lazio will win by a certain margin, the price of those contracts will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Lazio vs Monza match, specifically the goal difference. The official result, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will determine whether Lazio wins by more than 2.5 goals, or another outcome prevails. The platform will then finalize the market and distribute payouts to contract holders.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Lazio or Monza would likely cause significant movement. Tactical changes announced by either manager, or updates on team form and morale, could also shift predictions. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public sentiment, reflected in media coverage or social media, could impact trading activity and alter the odds in this market.