TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 2:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether Liverpool will win their Champions League match against LASK by more than 1.5 goals. Currently, the probability of Liverpool achieving this win margin on Kalshi is 95.0%. Resolution will be determined by the outcome of the LASK vs Liverpool professional soccer game, with the resolution source defining a ‘Yes’ outcome as LASK winning by more than 2.5 goals after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Keep a close watch on the match itself, scheduled for October 14, 2026, as the final score will directly determine the market’s outcome.
Resolution depends on whether LASK or Liverpool wins the match by a margin exceeding specified thresholds after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Markets include LASK winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, and Liverpool winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. If the actual margin meets or exceeds the threshold for the respective team, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi clarifies no official association with the governing league, and all trademarks are property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Kalshi allows traders to directly set prices based on their own assessments of probability. This can lead to differences, especially as new information emerges. It’s common to see prediction markets reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd' more accurately, particularly when there's strong public sentiment or inside information influencing trading activity in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs align with the eventual result. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price fluctuations are driven by supply and demand – increased buying pressure raises the price, while increased selling pressure lowers it, dynamically adjusting the perceived likelihood of each outcome for the LASK vs Liverpool match.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the LASK vs Liverpool match as officially recorded by sports data providers. Traders will then be paid out or have their positions adjusted based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual result. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand any potential factors that could influence the final outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 14, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either LASK or Liverpool would likely cause price movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or significant shifts in public opinion, reflected in media coverage and analysis, are all potential catalysts that could lead to changes in the price of this market.