TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming professional football game between Las Vegas and New York. Participants can speculate on how many times each designated player will catch the ball during the match. The outcomes reflect both individual player performance and overall game dynamics.
This event comprises four parallel scalar markets resolving based on the number of receptions recorded by four different players—Adonai Mitchell, Garrett Wilson, Ashton Jeanty, and Tre Tucker—during the Las Vegas vs New York J Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. For each player market, Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded, capped at $1.00 (equivalent to 20 receptions), while No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to contract positions and constrained between $0.00 and $1.00. For instance, if a player records eight receptions, the Yes payout is $0.40 and the No payout is $0.60; zero receptions result in a $0.00 Yes payout and a $1.00 No payout. All markets operate independently, with each resolving to Yes if the specified reception threshold is met according to the described payout structure. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NFL, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and perspectives from many participants. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges, such as player injuries or changes in team strategy. Polls and analysts often underestimate the impact of unexpected events, whereas the dynamic pricing here can quickly adjust to changing circumstances.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official NFL statistics for the relevant game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the players involved will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution process relies on publicly available data, ensuring transparency and objectivity. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about the event’s progress and potential impact on this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Player injuries are a major catalyst, as the absence of a key receiver would dramatically alter the expected reception totals. Changes in team offensive strategy, such as a shift towards a run-heavy approach, could also impact individual player performance. Unexpected weather conditions during the game, like heavy rain or strong winds, could affect passing volume and therefore receptions. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to shifts in market prices as traders react to the latest information.