TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by various players in a specific football game, offering multiple thresholds for different athletes to surpass during the match.
Each market evaluates whether a specified player achieves a minimum number of receptions in the designated game. If the player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once the player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the outcome is determined solely by the actual number of receptions recorded during the game. All markets are independent, and each threshold (e.g., 2+, 3+, etc.) represents a distinct condition for resolution. The markets cover multiple players, each with their own set of reception thresholds, and all share the same secondary rule regarding inactive or snap-less participants.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professional oddsmakers, this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, risk assessments, or simply the collective biases of market participants. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential reception totals. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence in that result. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity provide insights into the collective expectations of participants regarding the total receptions in the game, and the price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception total from the game will be used to determine which contracts settle at 100, and which settle at 0. The official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data provider, will serve as the basis for determining the winning contracts. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and their resulting profit or loss after the resolution process is complete.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers and tight ends would be significant, as their availability directly impacts potential reception totals. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect passing games and therefore the number of receptions. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding offensive strategy, or even in-game adjustments, could also shift market sentiment. Any news that alters expectations about the game's scoring potential has the ability to move this market.