TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on the number of successful passes thrown. Bettors can speculate on whether players will meet certain completion thresholds, adding an analytical layer to game-day strategy.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing completions recorded by the named quarterback during the Las Vegas vs New York J Professional Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. If the specified quarterback is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by penalty—the market resolves according to the actual completions recorded during the game. Each market has a distinct threshold (e.g., 15+, 20+, etc.) that must be met or exceeded for a 'Yes' resolution. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins, ensuring consistent evaluation of performance against predetermined benchmarks.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may initially incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market tends to aggregate information from a wider range of participants. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – you may see the prediction market odds converge or diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, potentially offering unique value to informed traders. It's a good practice to compare both to assess where the discrepancies lie.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. A higher price indicates a lower probability, while a lower price suggests a higher probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved during the game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, and any disputes will be handled according to Kalshi’s market rules. This ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key quarterback injuries, changes in weather conditions (particularly wind or rain), or adjustments to offensive strategies could cause the market to shift. Unexpected announcements about player availability, coaching decisions, or even pre-game reports on player matchups could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, significant public sentiment shifts, driven by expert analysis or social media trends, may also contribute to movements in the price of contracts within this market.