TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how often they attempt to pass the ball. The outcome depends on whether the players meet certain thresholds for pass attempts during the match. These thresholds help gauge offensive strategies and game dynamics.
The event evaluates whether designated quarterbacks, Geno Smith or Kirk Cousins, meet or exceed specified passing attempt thresholds in the Las Vegas vs New York J Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique threshold for each quarterback (e.g., 26+, 31+, or 36+ attempts for Geno Smith; 29+, 34+, or 39+ attempts for Kirk Cousins). If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. All markets operate independently, and each has its own resolution criteria based on the respective threshold for the associated quarterback.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can take a position in this market, driving the price to reflect their collective view. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges or public opinion shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids (to buy) and asks (to sell), and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The more buyers there are for a particular outcome, the higher the price will climb, indicating increased confidence in that result.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing attempts in the game will be sourced from official league statistics. This number will then be compared against the contract ranges offered on Kalshi to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual passing attempts range will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding key player injuries – particularly the quarterback or top receiving targets – would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also impact the expected number of passing attempts. Game-day reports about offensive play-calling tendencies or defensive strategies could further shift market sentiment. Finally, any major developments affecting the perceived competitiveness of the game could also drive trading activity.