TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team’s defense will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. It includes scenarios where either defense scores first or no touchdown is scored at all. The outcome depends purely on the game’s early scoring events involving defensive touchdowns.
The event determines whether the New York Jets defense, the Las Vegas Raiders defense, or neither scores the first touchdown in the professional football game scheduled for November 1, 2026. If the New York Jets defense scores the first touchdown, that specific market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if the Las Vegas Raiders defense scores the first touchdown, their corresponding market resolves to Yes. If neither defense scores a touchdown before any offensive touchdown is scored, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. Special teams touchdowns, such as those on fake punts or offensive field goals, do not count toward these outcomes. If a defense is active but does not take a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. Once a defense takes a snap, the market outcome is determined solely by whether they score the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored in the entire game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all player-specific markets resolve to No.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating information not fully captured by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. You may find that the implied probabilities from Kalshi align with sportsbook odds, but differences can emerge as new information becomes available or as public sentiment shifts regarding who will score the first touchdown. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage or informed speculation.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each potential player to score the first touchdown. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about that player’s probability of scoring first. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different outcomes. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in each player’s chances.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, following the conclusion of the Las Vegas versus New York game. The outcome will be determined by identifying the player who officially scores the first touchdown, as verified against credible public reporting from official game sources. The resolution will reflect the official game statistics and will be based on the player credited with the first touchdown by the official game statisticians. This process ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either team would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that favor a passing or running game, could also influence the market. Pre-game reports on defensive matchups and coaching strategies might also lead to adjustments. Finally, any significant public betting trends or expert analysis released before the game could move the market as traders react to new information and insights.