TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:42 PM EST
Kalshi
The market focuses on whether specific players score a certain number of touchdowns in an upcoming football game between Las Vegas and New England. Various players from both teams have different thresholds for touchdown counts that would trigger a resolution to 'Yes'. The contracts include protection clauses for player participation during the game.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but not after, the contract resolves to the fair price unless the required touchdowns are scored. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion. This event includes overtime, and passing touchdowns do not count toward the required totals. Team defense/special-teams selections settle on actual touchdowns, with the player participation exception not applying to them. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the probability of different outcomes. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when there is significant public interest and trading volume. However, sportsbook odds can provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and discrepancies can sometimes present arbitrage opportunities.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics for the Las Vegas versus New England matchup, specifically the total number of touchdowns scored by both teams. The official NFL game logs will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome in this market. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on whether their predicted outcome matches the final result.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Las Vegas or New England teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable for passing or running, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, even public perception and media narratives surrounding the game's potential scoring output can contribute to price fluctuations.