TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:19 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of individual players in an upcoming football game, with payouts scaling based on the number of receiving yards each player accumulates. Contracts reward higher yardage with progressively larger returns, creating a dynamic way to speculate on player performance.
Each market operates as a scalar contract where Yes payouts are determined by a cubic function of the player's receiving yards, capped at $1.00 for 200 or more yards. The payout schedule increases incrementally for every 10-yard bracket up to the maximum threshold. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout, ensuring total returns sum to $1.00 per contract pair. Negative yardage results in a $0.00 Yes payout. All markets resolve based on official game statistics, with Kalshi explicitly disclaiming affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling across both venues. However, it’s important to note that prediction markets often incorporate information and insights not readily available to sportsbooks, potentially leading to more accurate forecasts.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals for the Las Vegas and New England game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for each team will be sourced from official NFL statistics, and the market will settle based on whether the actual yardage falls within the ranges defined by the contracts traded on Kalshi. The resolution process ensures transparency and accuracy in determining the winning contracts.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers on either team would be a major catalyst, as their absence would directly impact expected receiving yardage. Weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could also affect passing games and therefore shift the market. Late-breaking news regarding defensive matchups or changes in offensive strategies could also lead to price movements. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment, as reflected by expert analysis or media coverage, could influence trading activity and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.