TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of specific quarterbacks in a football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns they achieve. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of success for the quarterback, allowing participants to bet on varying levels of offensive output.
All markets resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns recorded by the specified quarterback—Drake Maye or Kirk Cousins—during the Las Vegas vs New England Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the named quarterback meets or exceeds the stated threshold of passing touchdowns (1+, 2+, 3+, or 4+). If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual number of passing touchdowns recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both quarterbacks, ensuring consistent evaluation of performance against each threshold.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook's line is inaccurate, the price in this market will move accordingly, potentially offering different value. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different numbers of passing touchdowns. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current price indicates the probability that a specific number of passing touchdowns will be achieved, as determined by the traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Las Vegas versus New England game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, and the contract corresponding to the actual number of passing touchdowns will pay out $1.00. All other contracts will settle to $0.00. The platform will verify the outcome using publicly available data to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact predictions. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or defensive adjustments could shift trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could also cause noticeable price fluctuations in this market.