TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. It covers all types of touchdowns, including those scored by offense, defense, or special teams, and accounts for scenarios where the game might go into overtime. The outcome depends purely on the sequence of scoring plays at the start of the match.
The market determines which team scores the first touchdown in the Las Vegas vs New England Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026, with three possible outcomes: New England, Las Vegas, or neither team scoring a touchdown. All touchdowns—including offensive, defensive, and special teams plays—are counted, and a touchdown scored in overtime still counts toward the first-score resolution. If neither team scores a touchdown during the entire game, including overtime, the 'No team' outcome resolves as the winner. Postponements are handled such that if the game starts within 48 hours of its original time, trading continues and resolves based on the final result. If the game does not start within that window, the market resolves at a fair price. Kalshi clarifies it has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges. Polls and expert analyses often align more closely with prediction market probabilities than with initial sportsbook offerings, as this market aggregates diverse perspectives in a dynamic way.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a real-time assessment of probabilities. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by trading volume, also influence price discovery.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which player officially scores the first touchdown in the Las Vegas versus New England game, as recorded by official game statistics. The official game log will serve as the definitive source for determining the winning outcome of this market. Any disputes will be handled according to Kalshi’s standard procedures.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key offensive players on both teams are major catalysts. Any news regarding a player’s health or playing status will likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor a passing or running game, could also influence the market. Finally, late-breaking news about team strategies or matchups could shift probabilities as traders adjust their positions based on the latest information available before Oct 11, 2026.