TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performance in an upcoming Pro Football game, using a standardized fantasy-point system to determine outcomes.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points scored by specified players or teams during the full game (including overtime) of the Las Vegas vs New England Pro Football match scheduled for Oct 11, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for various statistical categories including passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions. Each market has a specific threshold; if the designated player or team exceeds their respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. Players who do not participate or are not assigned a fantasy-point value by Sleeper are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of game expiration are used for resolution, with no rounding or post-expiration adjustments permitted. The scoring system details specific point values for categories such as passing yards (0.04 points per yard, plus 1 point per 25 yards), touchdowns, interceptions, receptions, field goals of varying distances, defensive touchdowns, sacks, interceptions, and points allowed by defenses.
Often, prediction market prices reflect a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market aims to represent the true probability as assessed by traders. You may find that this market's implied probability differs from sportsbook lines, potentially due to differing information or biases among bettors and traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of the corresponding outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a higher fantasy point total, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating the outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point total for the Las Vegas and New England game, as officially recorded by a major fantasy sports provider, will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on standard fantasy football scoring rules, and the market will settle to reflect whether the actual total fantasy points were above or below the price at which contracts were traded.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Las Vegas or New England teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to passing or running, could also impact expectations for fantasy point totals. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations in this market.