TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which player or defensive unit will score the first touchdown for Las Vegas in an upcoming football game against New England. Each market corresponds to a specific player or the possibility of no touchdown being scored by Las Vegas.
These markets determine whether a specified Las Vegas player or the team's defense scores the first touchdown in the game against New England. Each individual player or unit market resolves to Yes if that specific participant scores the initial Las Vegas touchdown. If the named player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at its pre-game fair market price. Once a player takes a snap, the market outcome depends solely on whether they score the first touchdown. If no Las Vegas touchdowns are scored during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other player-specific markets resolve to No. This structure ensures that only one market can resolve to Yes, corresponding to the actual scorer of the first Las Vegas touchdown or the absence of any such score.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on information or perspectives not fully captured by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise from differing opinions on player performance, potential injuries, or even weather conditions. It's common to see this market incorporate new information more rapidly than traditional betting venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each team scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that outcome’s likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time indication of the perceived probabilities. The closer we get to the game, the more volatile the prices may become.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which team scored the first touchdown in the Las Vegas versus New England game. The outcome will be based on official game statistics and play-by-play data, ensuring an objective and verifiable result. Any scoring plays will be reviewed against official sources to determine the first touchdown scorer.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. News regarding injuries to key offensive players on either team would be a major catalyst, potentially shifting probabilities. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor a passing or running game, could also impact the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also lead to price movements. Finally, any late-breaking news or developments related to team morale or player availability could also cause shifts in the market’s assessment of probabilities.