TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:20 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will achieve a specific point differential advantage over the opposing team during the second half of a football game, including any overtime periods. The outcomes depend entirely on the scoring margin after the second half begins.
All markets resolve based on the point differential in favor of either the LA Rams or the PHI Eagles during the second half (including overtime) of the specified game. Each market has a different threshold for the point margin required for resolution to 'Yes'. If the LA Rams win by more than the specified margin outlined in the market title, that market resolves to 'Yes'. Similarly, if the PHI Eagles win by more than the margin specified, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'. If neither team meets their respective threshold, all markets resolve to 'No'. Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward these determinations.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can sometimes offer insights differing from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individual traders. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly if there's significant public information or sentiment not fully captured by sportsbook models. It's common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information, potentially offering a more dynamic reflection of expected outcomes than static sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half of the Rams-Eagles game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable contracts pay out $1 per contract if the actual spread falls within the purchased spread, minus the initial contract cost. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of the likely result.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread difference in the second half of the Rams-Eagles game will be used to determine which contracts payout. Contracts predicting a spread that matches the actual result will pay out $1 per contract. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and verified against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and accurate determination of the winning contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Rams or the Eagles would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could impact trader sentiment. Even significant betting patterns observed in traditional sportsbooks might influence traders on Kalshi to adjust their positions, leading to price fluctuations.